In a recent survey assessing unlikely voters’ preferences in a hypothetical 2024 presidential election, former President Donald Trump far surpassed current President Joe Biden.
The survey, conducted by Suffolk University and USA Today and released on Wednesday, sampled 900 U.S. citizens aged 18 and above, approximately half of them being registered voters. While the survey indicated a preference for Trump over Biden among respondents, a significant portion either chose ‘other’ or remained ‘undecided.’”
When asked about their voting inclinations at this stage, 15 percent of unregistered voters expressed support for Biden, 27.5 percent favored Trump, and nearly 28 percent remained either ‘other’ (5 percent) or ‘undecided’ (approximately 23 percent). An additional 8 percent indicated their support for Green Party candidate Cornel West, while approximately 7 percent declined to answer.
Among registered respondents, when posed with the same question, roughly 13 percent leaned towards Biden, 32 percent favored Trump, and a combined just over 33 percent indicated ‘other’ (7.25 percent) or ‘undecided’ (26 percent). A combined 3.5 percent from the same group either supported West or declined to answer.
Trump and Biden received similar favorability and unfavorability ratings in the survey, although the former president held a slight advantage. Among all 900 participants, Biden’s favorability stood at approximately 23.5 percent, while Trump’s was roughly 27.5 percent. President Biden garnered an unfavorability rating of 52 percent, while the former president’s rating was 49 percent.
The survey respondents were distributed across age groups as follows: 18-24 years (11 percent), 25-34 years (18 percent), 35-49 years (28 percent), 50-64 years (23 percent), and 65 or older (20 percent). Geographically, they were divided into quadrants, with 21 percent from the Northeast, 31 percent from the South, 22 percent from the Midwest, and 26 percent from the West.
Party affiliations within the group were roughly evenly split between Democrats (14 percent) and Republicans (13 percent). However, the majority identified as independent (29 percent), something else (32 percent), or chose not to respond (12 percent).
Among registered voters, approximately 17.5 percent claimed to have voted for Biden in the 2020 election, 23 percent voted for Trump, and 54 percent reported not voting.
The entire group was categorized by their likelihood to vote in the 2024 presidential election, with 66 percent stating they were ‘not at all likely,’ 20 percent indicating ‘not very likely,’ and 14 percent remaining ‘undecided.’
Nevertheless, when asked if there was anyone they would unquestionably support at the polls, just under 8 percent expressed unwavering support for Trump, while only about 1.5 percent did the same for Biden.
The survey was conducted via telephone from August 19th to August 27th and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.
The critical takeaway here is that the 2024 election campaign may boil down to what side can best motivate unlikely voters to turn out to vote.