A new poll found U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) trailing by a sizable margin against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and other candidates in the state’s upcoming Senate race.
The survey, conducted online by Democrat-leaning firm Change Research, found the far-left lawmaker trailing in hypothetical head-to-head matchups against Paxton and incumbent Senator John Cornyn. Crockett trails against both potential challengers by eight percentage points, with a 42-50 percent result against Paxton and 41-49 percent against Cornyn.
Both results place Crockett well outside the poll’s margin of error of three percent.
Paxton is currently the favorite to secure the Republican nomination, though the race is expected to be tightly contested after Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt entered the primary field back in October.
Crockett also found herself under water in terms of overall favorability, with 33 percent of respondents expressing a positive opinion while 40 percent expressed an unfavorable view, leaving her underwater by seven points. Democrat challengers like former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred and Texas State Rep. James Talarico have higher net favorability ratings than Crockett among voters aware of them.
Talarico — a progressive candidate who has claimed that “God is nonbinary” — has the highest net favorability rating among Democrats at +25 percentage points. The poll did not survey hypothetical matchups between Talarico or Allred and their Republican opponents, however.
In addition, 49 percent of voters said they would “definitely not” vote for Crockett, the highest of all candidates for either party. A total of 44 percent and 43 percent of respondents said they would not vote for Cornyn nor Paxton respectively — likely reflecting Democrat opposition and name recognition in the state.
Results were similar for Allred, who also has name recognition in the state after unsuccessfully running against Senator Ted Cruz in 2024. A total of 43 percent of respondents said they would never vote for Allred, while 40 percent said the same for Talarico, reflecting lower name recognition for the latter.
TEXAS POLL – SENATE
🟥 Ken Paxton: 50%
🟦 Jasmine Crockett: 42%
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🟥 John Cornyn: 49%
🟦 Jasmine Crockett: 41%
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TX Senate Generic Ballot🟥 Republican: 50%
🟦 Democrat: 41%
——@ChangePolls | 11/20-26 | 1,109 RVhttps://t.co/q01tvxQQVa pic.twitter.com/JDjKro1RaR— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) December 2, 2025
Crockett has not yet confirmed her candidacy, though she has indicated in recent weeks that she is moving towards a decision to jump in the race. While she is widely disliked by Republicans, she remains popular among the Democratic Party base.
One recent poll from Houston University found Crockett receiving 31 percent of the vote, good for a six-point lead over perennial candidate Beto O’Rourke and Talarico, both of whom received 25 percent. Allred trailed in a distant fourth with 13 percent.
