Early voting in Texas has turned what many expected to be a routine Republican Senate primary into a bruising fight that has establishment operatives uneasy.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) is a four-term incumbent seeking a fifth term who now finds himself in a competitive three-way contest with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R-TX).
Because none of the contenders has topped 50 percent in recent surveys, most observers expect the March 3 primary to move to a May 26 runoff.
Polling and warnings
Dallas-based GOP data analyst and pollster Ross Hunt warned that Democratic enthusiasm has surged before and then faded in past cycles, a pattern he described to The Hill.
“Folks who have been paying attention to Texas politics have all seen this movie before,” Hunt said.
Decision Desk HQ’s polling average shows Paxton narrowly leading Cornyn roughly 32 percent to 28 percent while Hunt sits near 19 percent, numbers that currently deny anyone an outright majority and point toward a runoff.
Speaking to supporters in Fort Worth, Cornyn warned, “If Ken Paxton is the nominee, we could well experience a massacre and the first Democrat elected since 1994 in the state of Texas.”
That comment reflects worry among establishment Republicans that Paxton’s polarizing profile could energize Democrats and force the party to spend to defend what should be a safe seat.
Party strategy and internal data
The National Republican Senatorial Committee circulated a memo asserting Cornyn is “the only Republican candidate who reliably wins a general election matchup” and warned Texas “cannot afford to be a gamble” this cycle.
GOP operatives cite internal polling that shows Cornyn holding healthier margins against hypothetical Democratic opponents than Paxton does in some matchups.
By contrast, those same internal figures suggest Paxton runs even with or slightly behind Democrats in particular scenarios.
Democratic attention and the national stage
Democrats are monitoring the race closely as Rep. Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico compete in their own primary, with Crockett benefiting from stronger name recognition and Talarico viewed as potentially more appealing to moderates.
Hovering over the contest is former President Trump, whose endorsement could instantly reshape the field.
Trump has said he likes “all three” Republican candidates and has not yet made a decision, a pause that has intensified speculation.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has reportedly cautioned Trump about the stakes, while Sen. John Fetterman publicly questioned why Republicans do not simply unite behind Cornyn.
Pollster Ross Hunt added that every day of early voting without a Trump endorsement creates an added disadvantage for Cornyn and that an endorsement would help any candidate but would most benefit the incumbent.
Candidate positioning and grassroots reaction
Paxton has emphasized his record of statewide victories and positioned himself as a committed MAGA ally while noting his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House and subsequent acquittal by the state Senate.
Wesley Hunt has criticized national Republicans for pouring resources into Cornyn, calling it a misplaced investment in a 24-year incumbent.
With early voting underway and no clear majority favorite, Texas appears headed for a runoff that could further inflame divisions within the GOP.
For many grassroots conservatives, this race represents a long-overdue reckoning with the establishment, while others warn it is a high-risk gamble in a cycle where control of the Senate could hinge on a few key seats.
