Former Maine Governor Paul LePage has won the open seat in Maine’s 2nd Congressional District, defeating Democrat state Auditor Matt Dunlap. This victory represents the sole Republican flip in a Democrat-held district during the 2026 election cycle.
The seat became available after Democrat incumbent Jared Golden chose not to run for reelection this year. Golden had built a reputation as a moderate and often crossed party lines during his four terms.
In this election, a total of 341,248 ballots were cast according to the Maine Secretary of State’s Office. LePage received 170,263 first-choice votes, equating to 49.894 percent under Maine’s ranked-choice voting system.
Dunlap garnered 164,845 votes, or 48.307 percent. Write-in candidates accounted for a mere 0.036 percent, totaling 123 votes, along with 6,017 blank ballots, making up 1.763 percent. This resulted in a first-choice lead of 5,418 votes for LePage.
Since neither candidate achieved a majority of the total votes, Maine law necessitates a ranked-choice voting tabulation. This process is set to begin on Monday, November 9, after the verification of municipal totals.
Both campaigns, along with officials, have expressed that the tabulation is unlikely to change the result given LePage’s significant first-choice lead compared to the remaining blank and write-in ballots. Historical data shows that most blank ballots tend to be exhausted without shifting to either candidate in similar runoffs.
LePage declared victory on Wednesday, about a day after the tabulation commenced, with Dunlap conceding the following day.
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Punchbowl News: Paul LePage (R) wins Maine’s 2nd congressional district, defeating Matt Dunlap (D-ME).
Republican flip pic.twitter.com/pKE9L3rbWK
— Politics & Poll Tracker
(@PollTracker2024) November 5, 2026
This victory flips the district from Democratic to Republican ownership, marking a distinct change as it is the only Democratic-held House seat to change hands in the 2026 cycle without being influenced by mid-decade redistricting.
Known for its vast rural landscape, the 2nd District in Maine, which has been carried by Donald Trump in three consecutive presidential elections, is the largest congressional district by area east of the Mississippi River.
At age 78, LePage will become one of the oldest newcomers to Congress. His political experience includes serving as the mayor of Waterville and as Maine’s governor from 2011 to 2019. Although he moved to Florida after his governorship due to term limits, he returned for an unsuccessful campaign in 2022 against Democratic Governor Janet Mills, where he still managed to win the 2nd District.
On a national scale, the success in Maine contrasts with the broader Democratic gains, as Democrats have claimed control of the House with a robust majority. Projections indicate that the party may secure between 250 to 260 seats, marking a net gain of approximately 40 seats and solidifying one of the largest Democratic House majorities in recent times.
