Texas Republicans are seeing a promising trend ahead of Election Day, with a recent analysis highlighting a significant GOP advantage among voters who have yet to cast their ballots.
Jason Corley, the lead pollster at Quantus Insights, delved into the demographics of voters who had not participated as of an October 29 data review. These voters previously cast ballots on Election Day in either 2022 or 2024.
The findings indicate a strong Republican presence, particularly among those who voted on Election Day in both years. Corley’s model classified 47% of this group as Republican, while 27.2% identified as Democratic, resulting in a notable gap of 19.8 percentage points.
This is noteworthy for the Republican Party, especially as Ken Paxton faces off against Democrat James Talarico for the Senate seat.
In addition to the favorable voter classification, Republicans are achieving better turnout scores and past primary participation rates. Among those categorized as Republicans, the average turnout score stands at 80.3, contrasted with 72.6 for Democrats. Furthermore, prior participation in primaries was recorded at 53.6% for Republicans compared to 44.5% for Democrats.
Across the spectrum of remaining voters who participated on Election Day in either year, the modeled breakdown indicates 37.1% as Republican, 24.7% as Democratic, with 38.2% in the undecided category.
In Texas, voter registration is not organized by political party, meaning these classifications are predictions rather than direct counts or registrations.
These insights coincide with Quantus Insights’ latest statewide poll, where Paxton is shown to have a slight lead over Talarico.
The October 26-28 survey of 1,221 likely voters places Paxton at 48.7% and Talarico at 47.6%. Libertarian Ted Brown captures 1.4%, while 2.2% remain undecided.
Paxton’s 1.1-point lead is within what Quantus identifies as a 6.4-percentage-point margin of error between the candidates.
Previously, in an Oct. 9-11 survey, Paxton led 47.2% to Talarico’s 46.7%. The slight variation between polls does not suggest a significant change in the race’s dynamics.
Meanwhile, Republican Governor Greg Abbott demonstrates a strong lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, with 50.7% to 45.8% in the latest Quantus survey.
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Corley’s analysis particularly focuses on voters who have historically participated on Election Day. While informative, it does not predict how the remaining electorate will ultimately vote.
“This is not an Election Day projection. It describes who remains and their past voting habits, but does not determine who will turn out or which candidates will receive their support,” Corley stated.
For Republicans, the findings are encouraging, demonstrating a larger modeled presence, elevated turnout scores, and higher prior primary participation among the group examined. The real question remains whether these voters will turn out and support Paxton, which will influence the final election results.
