Hurricane Vance, designated as the 22nd storm of the 2026 eastern North Pacific season, escalated to a Category 1 hurricane on Friday. It is anticipated to strengthen further, possibly reaching Category 3 status while heading toward Mexico’s Pacific coastline.
According to the National Hurricane Center’s latest advisory at 9:00 a.m. Central Time, the storm is currently about 455 miles southwest of Acapulco and 590 miles southeast of Manzanillo. Maximum sustained winds have risen to 90 mph, with higher gusts reported.
The hurricane is progressing northwestward at roughly 5 mph, with hurricane-force winds extending 35 miles from its center. Tropical-storm-force winds stretch outward up to 205 miles.
Satellite intensity estimates suggest a range from 70 to 79 knots, aligning with the storm’s initial intensity of 80 knots or 90 mph. This indicates steady to rapid strengthening due to favorable atmospheric conditions including low wind shear and ample moisture.
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BREAKING: Vance has become a hurricane as it churns off the coast of Mexico, the National Hurricane Center said early Friday. The center said the storm is expected to strengthen rapidly and could be a major Category 4 hurricane before the end of the day. https://t.co/pkRwR3Hlvy
— The Associated Press (@AP) October 23, 2026
The forecast suggests that Vance will continue to strengthen through Saturday morning, with projections indicating peak intensity approaching 110 knots or 115 mph around midday. After this peak, weakening is anticipated, attributed to a decrease in oceanic heat and rising vertical wind shear.
The hurricane’s trajectory points to a slow northwest or north-northwest movement throughout the weekend, influenced by a weak mid-level ridge over eastern Mexico. A mid- to upper-level trough over the western U.S. may adjust its path later.
No coastal watches or warnings have been issued at this time. While landfall is unlikely, some forecasts indicate potential slight shifts eastward. Elevated surf poses the primary hazard, with swells from Vance expected to impact southern and southwestern coastlines this weekend, leading to perilous surf and rip currents.
Over the next five days, tropical-storm-force wind probabilities remain modest along the coast, becoming more pronounced near Manzanillo. Forecasters caution that both track and intensity predictions could evolve with forthcoming advisories as the situation develops.
