Ken Paxton is currently leading the Texas Senate race, according to a recent Quantus Insights poll, which indicates growing Republican backing as Election Day approaches.
The survey, conducted from October 26-28 among 1,221 likely voters, shows Paxton at 48.7% against Democrat James Talarico’s 47.6%. Libertarian candidate Ted Brown garners 1.4%, while 2.2% remain undecided.
Support for Paxton among Republicans has risen to 93%, an increase from 87% in an earlier poll this month. His lead over Talarico has expanded slightly from 0.5 percentage points to 1.1.
The race is still very close, with a margin of error of about 6.4 percentage points, placing Paxton’s lead well within that margin.
Additionally, the poll reveals a potentially advantageous scenario for Republicans regarding voter turnout. While 59% of Democrats have already cast their ballots, only 49% of Republicans and 41% of independents have done so, with many indicating plans to vote on Election Day.
According to Quantus Insights, the remaining votes tend to skew Republican.
As it stands, 54.3% of likely voters report having voted, with the majority doing so in person early.
In terms of demographic support, Paxton leads Talarico in suburban areas, winning 49% to 47%. Rural voters overwhelmingly back him 66% to 31%, whereas urban areas show Talarico leading by 61% to 36%.
Independents pose a challenge for Paxton, as they favor Talarico 57% to 33%, marking a significant increase in Talarico’s lead among this group.
Despite strong party loyalty, there are limited undecided voters left. The last Quantus survey indicated little change in leaning preferences among remaining voters.
Republican Governor Greg Abbott is also doing well, leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa 50.7% to 45.8% in his race. Including undecided voters who expressed a preference, Abbott’s lead increases to 51.6% to 46.3%.
For Paxton, the final days of the campaign will involve defending his close suburban advantage and ensuring strong Republican turnout, while Talarico seeks to bolster his appeal among undecided independents.
