There’s a report right now that suggests Russia is planning to launch a 50 ton intercontinental ballistic missile at Kiev, Ukraine in response to Ukraine launching both US and British missile into Russia.
Here’s the report:
BREAKING | Russia is preparing to launch the RS-26 intercontinental ballistic missile in a possible attack on the capital of Ukraine, Kiev. pic.twitter.com/GIeTFJVqw8
— InsideNK/GeoPolitics (@inside_nk) November 20, 2024
They also report that Kyrgyzstan has order its citizens to evacuate Ukraine immediately:
Russian ally Kyrgyzstan has called on its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately.
— InsideNK/GeoPolitics (@inside_nk) November 20, 2024
To that end the US also closed its embassy in Kiev today, warning of a possible significant aerial attack from Russia today:
Ukraine: The U.S. Embassy in Kyiv received specific information of a potential significant air attack on Nov 20. The Embassy will be closed and recommends U.S. citizens be prepared to immediately shelter in the event an air alert is announced. https://t.co/ah0bpDfULK pic.twitter.com/m8cWXCXT2V
— Travel – State Dept (@TravelGov) November 20, 2024
So what are the chances this is real versus disinformation? It’s hard to say, but this reporting from the Kiev Post explains where this information may be coming and cites sources suggesting that a launch of this magnitude is unlikely:
Reports were circulating Wednesday, Nov. 20 on Ukrainian social media that Russia has been planning a large-scale missile strike for the same day. The strike reportedly is expected to involve a new ballistic missile with a range of up to 6,000 kilometers (3,728 miles). However, at least some of the reports are Russian disinformation, Ukraine’s military intelligence “HUR” said.
The US Embassy in Kyiv warned American citizens on Nov. 20 about a potential missile strike, expected to take place on the same day.
The warning, posted on the embassy’s website, cites “specific information” regarding the threat. The embassy has urged US nationals in Ukraine to be prepared to seek immediate shelter during air alerts.
This warning follows heightened tensions after Ukraine reportedly used US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles against an ammunition depot in Russia’s Bryansk region. The attack came days after Washington authorized Kyiv to use these weapons in response to escalating Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy – 120 missiles and 90 drones on Sunday – and the arrival of North Korean troops in Russia.
The embassies of Spain, Italy, and Greece in Kyiv suspended operations for the day due to a potential “security threat.” The Kazakh embassy has also urged its citizens to leave the country.
Though the source of this information remains unclear, the RBC-Ukraine media outlet reported that the Strategic Control channel, which specializes in monitoring radio frequencies and tracking Russian military transport aircraft, was likely the first to release such a warning.
According to the Strategic Control channel, the potential use of the RS-26 Rubezh is likely a response to Ukrainian ATACMS ballistic missile strikes.
“The deployment of the RS-26 in the Astrakhan region allows for the possibility of launching missiles at Ukraine from the east, bypassing most of the anti-missile systems positioned near the northern borders,” the report states. “This also reduces the likelihood of interception during the missile’s early flight stages.”
At the same time, the Strategic Control channel suggested that reports of a potential strike by the Rubezh missile could be an attempt by the Kremlin to exert psychological pressure and demonstrate strength to Ukraine’s Western partners. RBC-Ukraine noted that this message was removed from the Telegram channel.
. So far, no official has confirmed the possibility of a Russian attack using the Rubezh missile.
Later, reports from the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) emerged, stating that Russia was conducting a large-scale information and psychological attack against Ukraine.
“A message is being spread via messengers and social networks, allegedly from the HUR, warning of a ‘particularly massive’ missile and bomb strike on Ukrainian cities today,” the report read.
“This message is a fake, containing grammatical errors typical of Russian information and psychological operations,” Ukrainian intelligence said.
The HUR added that these measures are part of Russia’s strategy to intimidate and psychologically pressure Ukrainian society. However, intelligence officials urged Ukrainians not to ignore air raid sirens, while also encouraging them to avoid panic.
In response, the largest considered to be credible Ukrainian monitoring Telegram channel, Nikolaevsky Vanek, reported:
“I have no information about missiles targeting Kyiv or mass shelling throughout the city.”
The report clarified that no strategic bombers were in the air, and that six ships with Kalibr missiles had been at sea for several days. It also mentioned that there were no reports of launches of supercontinental ballistic missiles.
“Information campaigns do not affect me, and the closure of embassies does not bother me,” Nikolaevsky Vanek concluded. “Why weren’t they closed when there were actual missile launches and a lot of drone activity?”
