Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales is facing steep odds in his upcoming GOP primary as fallout continues from a sex scandal involving a former aide who died by suicide last year.
Gonzales, 45, a married father of six and Navy veteran, had an affair with his former district director, Regina Ann “Regi” Santos-Aviles, 35. Santos-Aviles self-immolated in the garden of her Texas Hill Country home in September.
A former Gonzales staffer told the San Antonio Express-News that the congressman failed to act after being warned about Santos-Aviles’ declining mental health. The report said Santos-Aviles’ husband had learned of the affair and that she became depressed.
Prediction markets suggest Gonzales is now an underdog despite being a multi-term incumbent. Polymarket gives Gonzales a 41 percent chance of defeating fellow Republican Brandon Herrera, while Kalshi puts his chances at 39 percent.
Herrera, a 30-year-old gun rights activist and YouTuber, has been assigned 57 percent and 61 percent chances of winning on the two platforms. A third GOP candidate, Keith Barton, has rarely traded above one percent on Kalshi and is not listed on Polymarket.
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President Donald Trump endorsed Gonzales in a December Truth Social post, calling him a “terrific representative” who supports the military, veterans, economic growth, tax cuts, border security, and the Second Amendment.
Gonzales, long considered a “RINO” among the GOP’s base, has since aligned himself much more closely with Trump’s agenda. According to prior reports, he declined to condemn a racist video shared by Trump when pressed during a live television appearance earlier this month.
Text messages Santos-Aviles sent to colleagues were published by the Express-News, including one in which she wrote in part, “I had [an] affair with our boss.”
The former aide who said he alerted Gonzales about Santos-Aviles’ mental state has since left the office, saying he could no longer promote Gonzales’ “message and his ideals.”
The affair was reportedly known within Gonzales’ orbit well before Santos-Aviles’ death. The Express-News reported that some staff members were aware as early as 2024.
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Bobby Barrera, an attorney representing Santos-Aviles’ husband, Adrian Aviles, said the relationship “was not a secret among the staff.”
“It’s common knowledge,” Barrera said. “The staff was clearly aware this event was occurring.”
Barrera added that he is not certain the affair itself directly caused Santos-Aviles’ suicide.
Rumors of the relationship intensified after Santos-Aviles’ death. A spokesperson for Gonzales blasted media coverage earlier this year, accusing those advancing claims that the congressman bore partial responsibility of being “political bottom feeders” attempting to “distort” the tragedy.
Gonzales is seeking a fourth term in Congress. The primary contest now shapes up as one of the most closely watched Republican intraparty battles in Texas, with the incumbent fighting to survive amid damaging headlines and shifting political winds.
