Election Day has taken a surprising turn in New Jersey as the voter turnout has surpassed expectations in several red counties. This could spell trouble for Democrats, who have long considered New Jersey to be a blue-dominated state.
Early afternoon data on turnout shows counties with a Republican majority, such as Monmouth, Ocean and Hunterdon, are beating blue-strongholds like Union and Essex. Overall turnout in the state has reached 2021-levels, but the enthusiasm of the two parties is lopsided.
Michael Pruser of the election analyst firm, Pruser & Associates, reported that Union County’s total 2021 turnout was nearly 97% by noon. This is a good showing, but Democrats had expected it to translate into an advantage. By early afternoon, his breakdown revealed that 29,876 Democrats had voted, followed by 13,383 Republicans and 14,609 Independents.
Monmouth County appears to have the strongest Republican movement. Monmouth County’s turnout on election day is now “redder” than in 2024, according to analyst Eric Daugherty. This could be a significant sign for a race that may remain close until the end of the night. Daugherty provided updated figures showing Republicans with 43,065 ballots, Democrats with 29,620 and Others at 29361. This puts the county’s R+13.2 score at two points higher than the presidential election of 2024.
The turnout on Election Day in New Jersey has decreased in the blue counties of Union and Essex compared with red counties Ocean, Monmouth, Hunterdon. The party breakdowns in each county, however, are the same as 2024. https://t.co/nyY3W2ul9d
Zachary Donnini 4 November 2025
The blue counties do not exceed their previous turnout rate, but they match it. This small difference can be crucial.
One of the most watched races in the country is the gubernatorial contest between Republican Jack Ciattarelli and Democrat Mikie Sherrill. Sherrill is a former Navy pilot and a congresswoman who’s running for Governor Phil Murphy, whose term has expired. Ciattarelli is running again after nearly defeating Murphy in 2021. This time, the political climate favoring Republicans has changed under Donald Trump’s second term.
Just in: MONMOUTH County, New Jersey Election Day is Redder than 2024 Right now
2024: R+11.2
NOW: R+13.2
Republican: 43,065
Democratic: 29,620
Other: 29,361
Keep voting!
Eric Daugherty 4 November 2025
Sherrill led the polls by only 3 to 6 percentage points. However, the tightening of the margins as well as the strong GOP turnout has given Republicans reasons to think that the race may go to the end. Voter sentiment is still dominated by economic concerns. Rising costs, energy bills, and property taxes are the top concerns for many residents. Ciattarelli’s campaign has been focused on reining in costs and cutting taxes, while Sherrill is focusing more on infrastructure and investments.
The stakes are raised by the fact that all 80 seats of the New Jersey General Assembly will also be on the ballot. Republicans aim to end the Democratic legislative majority in New Jersey, which will mark a significant political shift. The day was not without its challenges – such as bomb threats which temporarily closed several polling stations across seven counties – but officials confirmed the threats weren’t credible. Voting resumed shortly after.
The polls will remain open through 8 pm, and the last hours of voting will decide whether or not the recent red wave in certain counties will translate into a victory for the Democrats. Or if it is just a morale boost going into 2026. The results of today will be a good indicator for the amount of ground Republicans gained in Northeast and whether Democrats still have New Jersey to rely upon as their blue wall.
