Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy is encountering serious difficulties in his quest for reelection in 2026. Recent polling highlights that the Republican incumbent is trailing both of his main rivals in a contentious primary.
A memo from BDPC Campaign Strategies reveals that Rep. Julia Letlow is leading with 29 percent support among likely primary voters, closely followed by Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming at 23.5 percent. Cassidy holds a distant third place with just 19.7 percent, while a significant 26.8 percent of voters remain undecided.
These numbers indicate that no candidate has firmly established themselves as the favorite by mid-March. Nevertheless, Cassidy’s standings seem to be declining after a brief rise earlier in the year.
According to the memo, Letlow has made a notable comeback, improving from 21.3 percent in February to her current 29 percent. Fleming has also gained steadily, moving from 14.3 percent in January to his current standing.
In contrast, Cassidy’s poll numbers are in free fall. After reaching a peak of 27.5 percent in February, he has plummeted nearly eight points and currently finds himself at his lowest level during the tracking period.
Runoff Matchups
The polling becomes even more alarming for Cassidy in potential runoff scenarios.
In a direct competition against Letlow, she significantly outpaces Cassidy with a whopping 50.2 percent to his 24.2 percent. Fleming also leads Cassidy with 48.7 percent over his 26.3 percent.
Interestingly, a hypothetical matchup between Letlow and Fleming is nearly tied, with Letlow slightly ahead at 34.3 percent versus Fleming’s 33.2 percent.
Regional Performance
Regionally, Cassidy performs best in the New Orleans area, where he garners 26.4 percent support. However, he struggles notably in the Alexandria-Shreveport-Monroe area, where his support dwindles to just 11.8 percent.
This region appears to favor both challengers, as Letlow commands 37.3 percent support while Fleming follows closely with 29 percent, remaining competitive in the Lafayette-Lake Charles area at 24.6 percent.
The survey highlights a predominantly Republican electorate, with GOP voters making up 85.2 percent of respondents compared to 14.8 percent who identify as independent.
Among Republicans, Letlow leads with 31.3 percent, whereas Cassidy only obtains 19 percent. Cassidy does marginally better among independent voters, leading that demographic at 23.6 percent, while Fleming pulls only 14.6 percent.
The memo also reveals a concerning image issue for Cassidy, showing that his unfavorable ratings significantly outstrip those of his opponents.
Cassidy faces a 42.8 percent “very unfavorable” rating among surveyed voters, in stark contrast to just 4.8 percent for Fleming and 15.7 percent for Letlow.
In a telling contrast, President Donald Trump enjoys substantial popularity within the same voter base, with a 66.2 percent “very favorable” rating. This could serve as a crucial indication for Cassidy as he navigates a Republican primary backing that remains strongly aligned with Trump.
