A new poll suggests Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani would dominate the crowded New York City mayoral race — but face a tougher challenge in one-on-one matchups.
The Tulchin Research survey, conducted for the New York Apartment Association, found Mamdani with 42% support in a five-way race. Former Gov. Andrew Cuomo polled at 26%, Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa at 17%, Mayor Eric Adams at 9%, and independent Jim Walden at 3%.
Head-to-Head Matchups
In a direct contest with Cuomo, however, Mamdani would lose 41% to 52%, the poll found. Against Adams alone, Mamdani led narrowly, 45% to 42%.
Analysts noted that nearly all of Cuomo’s support from other candidates in the field transferred to him in the hypothetical one-on-one scenario. Tulchin’s memo concluded that Cuomo holds “a broader and more diverse coalition” while Mamdani’s strength lies with progressives.
Skepticism From Strategists
Democratic strategists dismissed the poll as unrealistic. “Looks like a fantasy poll commissioned by Andrew Cuomo,” strategist Ken Frydman said. “If the election were held today, Cuomo would not beat Mamdani in a one-on-one race.”
Sam Raskin of Slingshot Strategies argued the survey was skewed by intent. “These are people who don’t want Mamdani. They are trying to create a scenario that doesn’t exist.”
The poll surveyed 1,000 likely voters from Aug. 7–14 with a margin of error of ±3.1 points. Two-thirds of respondents were over 50, a group less favorable to Mamdani, while younger voters under 40 drove his primary victory.
Sliwa’s Strong Third
Sliwa, founder of the Guardian Angels and the GOP nominee, is holding steady in third place. He has rejected calls to exit the race, and analysts expect him to outperform current polling in November due to his ballot position and Republican base.
Adams Running as Independent
Adams, under scrutiny from corruption scandals, skipped the Democratic primary but is still on the ballot as an independent. His 9% standing in the poll highlights his weakened political footing.
