Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has surged into a narrow lead over Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican U.S. Senate primary, energizing MAGA grassroots across the state.
An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey shows Paxton at 40%, Cornyn at 36% and Rep. Wesley Hunt at 17%.
Those figures indicate a fast-tightening race with momentum clearly moving toward Paxton.
Cornyn, a long-serving Senate incumbent and fixture of the Republican establishment in Washington, now faces what looks like a liability in today’s GOP.
Paxton has cultivated an image as a fighter, and that message is resonating with voters who value confrontation, loyalty to President Donald Trump and opposition to the political class.
Since January, Paxton’s support has climbed 13 points while Cornyn’s has risen 10 points, but Paxton’s gains are concentrated among the voters who matter late in a primary.
Cornyn leads among early voters, 38% to 34%, while Paxton holds a commanding 12-point advantage with likely Election Day voters, 44% to 32%.
The demographic breakdown underlines the divide between establishment and base support.
“Senator Cornyn performs strongest among Republican Primary voters with college degrees, leading Paxton 43% to 32%, and voters over 70, 52% to 35%, while Paxton leads with voters under 50, 38% to 22%, and voters in their 50s and 60s, 44% to 30%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Put simply, Cornyn does best with older, traditional Republicans while Paxton dominates the voters powering the modern GOP base.
Paxton’s strength with 2024 Trump supporters is notable, leading Cornyn 46% to 33% among that group.
Cornyn performs far better with voters who backed Kamala Harris or another candidate, winning 49% of that subgroup to Paxton’s 8%.
Those numbers are not the kind of number a Texas Republican wants attached to his name.
Wesley Hunt’s 17% could keep both men below the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, setting up an intense one-on-one contest.
The surge gives MAGA backers fresh proof that the grassroots still calls the shots in Texas.
