Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton enters the upcoming Republican Senate runoff with a notable advantage over Senator John Cornyn, based on a recent Quantus Insights survey.
The last poll before the May 26 election shows Paxton with 52.7% support among likely GOP voters, while Cornyn has 43.4%. Approximately 3.9% of voters remain undecided.
The poll was undertaken from May 21-23, surveying 1,018 likely Republican runoff voters via mobile-cell SMS outreach. The effective sample size was determined to be 936, with a margin of error around 3.5 percentage points.
This runoff presents a stark contrast to March’s primary, where Cornyn narrowly led Paxton by 1.5 points, necessitating this head-to-head matchup.
Paxton’s lead is evident across multiple voter segments, including men, women, and rural constituents, as well as suburban voters and Republicans without college degrees. He also secured a lead in major Texas media markets.
Conversely, Cornyn’s strongest support comes from urban and highly educated Republicans, particularly among graduate-degree holders. However, these strengths might not suffice to eclipse Paxton’s wider appeal within the runoff’s electorate.
RELATED: One Pollster Is Nailing The 2026 Election Cycle With Remarkable Accuracy
A pivotal moment in the competition occurred when President Donald Trump endorsed Paxton on May 19.
The survey revealed that 87.8% of voters were aware of this endorsement, though a majority (58.9%) said it did not influence their voting choice.
Among those who felt the endorsement was impactful, 24.8% stated they were more inclined to support Paxton due to Trump’s backing, while only 15.4% indicated it swayed them towards Cornyn.
In terms of voter ideology, Quantus found that 40.9% identified as traditional or conservative Republicans, and 23.5% considered themselves part of the Trump-MAGA movement. Additionally, 14.7% described themselves as America First supporters, while 12.1% identified as moderates.
Trump maintains a strong approval rate among these voters, with 81.7% supporting his performance, including 61.3% who express strong approval.
Quantus suggests that Cornyn’s best opportunity lies in a higher turnout on Election Day, which could favor a more urban and establishment-oriented electorate that might be less inclined toward Trump’s brand of politics.
The memo concludes that, as Election Day approaches, the data favors Paxton in this crucial runoff.
