New York Times columnist, Ross Douthat, put out this prediction this morning for how the election will end and he explains the simple logic in his ‘model’ as to why he believes it will be a landslide.
Here’s what he wrote:
What I’ve been expecting since the spring, no reason to hedge now. pic.twitter.com/bEXgWowcs3
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) November 5, 2024
My “model” — Trump won when he was behind in the polls in 2016, almost won when he was way behind in the polls in 2020, now he’s even in the polls with his best numbers ever, nothing in the early vote to strongly contra-indicate his victory, bet on him to win.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) November 5, 2024
It’s really hard to argue with that kind of logic! I would add to this just how panicky Democrats have been in the last few weeks. Between the two, Trump is a shoe-in!
What makes me nervous is when I see just how narrow the margins for victory are according to pollsters like Nate Silver:
JUST IN: Nate Silver’s FINAL election model projects Trump to win Pennsylvania by 0.1 points – which would give him the presidency pic.twitter.com/ZaWCfvbz37
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 5, 2024
Which is why I remain cautiously optimistic and won’t get ahead of myself. But I really do hope that Douthat’s logic is sound and I believe it is!
