In a new Trafalgar Group poll, Ken Paxton secures a narrow lead over Democrat James Talarico as Texas’ Senate race gears up for Election Day. Paxton garners 48.1% support, while Talarico follows closely behind at 47.5%.
The poll, conducted between October 31 and November 1, surveyed 1,089 likely voters, with a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points. This means Paxton’s slim advantage sits within the margin, indicating a highly competitive race.
Older voters significantly favor Paxton, leading 56.2% to 39.6% among those aged 50 to 64, and 57.7% to 37.6% among voters 65 and older. Notably, these older demographics comprise over 63% of the poll’s sample.
However, Talarico excels with younger voters, commanding 53.8% to 37.8% among those aged 18 to 29, and showing even stronger numbers in the 30 to 39 age group, where he leads 71.5% to 23%.
The gender breakdown reveals contrasting support; Paxton is ahead among men by 11 points, while Talarico captures an 8.8-point advantage among women. The poll sample counts women at 52.6% and men at 47.4%.
Demographic trends further highlight divisions: Paxton boasts an 18.5-point lead among white voters but trails behind among Hispanic and Black voters, where Talarico holds strong support.
The party composition of the sample stands at 45.7% Republican, 33.6% Democrat, and 20.7% without party affiliation. Importantly, neither candidate exceeds the 50% mark, and undecided voters represent a significant portion, emphasizing the race’s uncertainty.
With a reported 95% confidence level and low response rate, the results underline the highly competitive nature of this Senate race.
