Democrat Aftyn Behn and Republican Matt Van Epps are barreling toward a photo finish in Tennessee’s special election for the seat left vacant by former Rep. Mark Green — a district the GOP usually wins without breaking a sweat.
An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey released Wednesday shows Van Epps, a former state General Services commissioner, at about 48 percent, with Behn, a state lawmaker, right behind at 46 percent among likely voters and those who have already cast ballots. Roughly 5 percent are still on the fence.
When undecided voters are pushed on which way they’re leaning, Van Epps edges up to 49 percent while Behn ticks up to 47 percent, hardly the kind of breathing room Republicans are used to in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District.
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The two are vying to replace Green, who resigned earlier this year for a private-sector job. The special election is set for Dec. 2.
The district’s sprawl runs from the Kentucky line down to Alabama, scooping up parts of north and west Nashville. It’s been a reliably red fortress, but Democrats, sensing a chance to make noise after recent wins elsewhere, have funneled cash and star power into the race. Behn, who has faced multiple scandals in recent months, is popular among the party’s left-wing base.
The poll found the economy dominating voters’ minds at 38 percent, followed by housing affordability at 15 percent. Health care and “threats to democracy” each drew 13 percent.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a release.
“Those who report voting early break for Behn, 56% to 42%, whereas those who plan to vote on Election Day break for Van Epps, 51% to 39%,” he added. “Voters under 40 are Behn’s strongest group, 64% of whom support her, while Van Epps’ vote increases with age, to 61% of those over 70.”
The survey of 600 likely and early voters was conducted Nov. 22 to 24 and carries a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points.
