Jack Ciattarelli, the Republican candidate in New Jersey’s high profile gubernatorial election is just a few votes away.
Quantus Insights ‘s latest survey shows that Mikie Sherrill is clinging on to a narrow lead of 49% over 46% — within the margins of error +-2.6%. If leaners and independents are taken into account, the result is 49.2% to 44.9%. This results in a statistical tie. This survey of 1,380 likely electors, which was conducted on Oct. 26 and 27, paints an image of a divided state.
It’s not the New Jersey that Christie Whitman and Chris Christie knew. State electorates have aged and become more conservative. 77% are older than 45. 36% of the voters are senior citizens. Women outnumber males 53% to 47%. Democrats have a slight registration advantage of 44% over 34%. However, the action in Central Jersey is where the majority of voters reside — a swing district that accounts for 28%. The mansion goes to the winner of that race.
North Jersey is still a blue zone, South Jersey tends to be red and the middle remains up for grabs. When the poll was conducted, only 29% had cast their ballots. However, Democrats hope to get votes in early. Only 24% of Republicans said that they had voted. About 35% Democrats claimed to have already done so. The Democrats are still a stronghold for voting by mail — 75% were sent via postal service, while only 45% were sent through the USPS.
Ciattarelli is on a path that will take him to the day of election. He leads 39% to 60% among voters who plan to vote in person at the polls on November 4. Sherrill has a huge advantage among mail-in votes, dominating 76% of them to just 19%. This is the result of a race with two screens — Democrats who are racking up votes early and Republicans who wait to flood polls.
In a showdown between two candidates, undecideds leaned 36% towards a third party candidate when pushed. Ciattarelli receives 33% of undecided votes, while Sherrill gets 31%. About 5% of voters could swing the election in either direction or decide to stay at home.
Both sides are energized. 72 percent of voters are more motivated this year than they were in previous elections. Republicans lead at 77%, and Democrats follow closely at 70%. Although the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats is small, it could be important if this difference translates into higher turnout.
Ciattarelli is the clear frontrunner, despite Sherrill’s small lead. 53 percent of voters believe that their neighbors and friends are behind him, while 47% say the same about Sherrill. It’s an overwhelming perception among Republicans — 83% believe their friends and neighbors are with Jack. This quiet confidence could be the difference when the time comes to push the lever.
Sherrill has a paper-thin lead, based on female participation and mail ballots. Ciattarelli’s comeback is dependent on an election day surge of red votes, especially among suburban men and Central Jersey residents. Both sides will lose if they let up, not by miles but only by inches. Ciattarelli is the closest to the goal at this moment.
