Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard alerted Congress to a swiftly escalating missile threat facing the United States. During her recent presentation of the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment to the Senate Intelligence Committee, she emphasized missile proliferation as one of the foremost long-term dangers to the nation.
The intelligence report underlines that the threat is not confined to a singular adversary. According to U.S. officials, nations such as China, Russia, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan are all enhancing missile systems, with both conventional and nuclear capabilities, that could potentially target U.S. territories.
Widening Scope of Danger
This broader outlook indicates that these nations are now included in discussions about risks to America’s homeland, rather than solely focusing on conventional nuclear powers.
“These countries are developing a variety of advanced missile delivery systems featuring nuclear and conventional payloads, which place our homeland at risk,” Gabbard said.
Projected Growth of Missile Arsenal
The assessment’s most concerning insight is the forecasted escalation in missile numbers. Officials predict that the arsenal could swell from over 3,000 today to more than 16,000 by 2035.
This projection does not imply that these missiles are aimed directly at the U.S., but it highlights a trend: missile technology is on the rise, becoming more sophisticated and challenging to defend against as nations expand their arsenals. North Korea serves as a notable example of this escalating threat.
The report indicates North Korea has successfully tested intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of striking any part of the United States.
Iran’s Potential Threat
Iran’s situation warrants detailed attention. The assessment reveals that even prior to Operation Epic Fury, Iran had developed space-launch technology, which could be repurposed into an intercontinental ballistic missile by 2035 if they pursue that pathway.
Although the report does not assert that Iran possesses a missile presently able to hit the U.S., it does caution that the groundwork for such a capability exists and could evolve into a more serious threat over time. Moreover, the assessment emphasizes that the threat transcends mere missile counts.
New Delivery Systems and Defense Challenges
U.S. adversaries are refining a mix of “novel, advanced, or traditional” delivery systems, including sophisticated weapons paired with low-cost options like one-way attack drones. This combined approach may complicate defenses, overwhelming U.S. systems with varying threats at once.
Gabbard noted that this assessment represents the intelligence community’s collective judgment, rather than her personal beliefs. She aims to clarify the risks posed to “U.S. citizens, our homeland, and our interests.”
The findings arrive as policymakers deliberate on how extensively the United States should bolster its missile defense systems. Competitor nations are likely observing U.S. strategies closely, which could influence their military advancements. Additionally, it suggests that Chinese officials may be wary that a defense system like “Golden Dome for America” could alter U.S. decision-making during a crisis, potentially lowering thresholds for military action.
This evolving dynamic indicates that missile defense has transitioned from purely protection to also encompassing deterrence and a significant role in the global power balance.
