Voters are giving President Donald Trump a modest boost on the economy and Republicans a messaging edge as the midterms approach.
The latest Harvard CAPS / Harris poll shows the GOP has surged eight points on the generic congressional ballot since January and now stands even at 50-50 after trailing at the start of the year.
Among likely voters, Republicans hold a four-point lead according to the survey.
The February poll found 52% of voters say the economy is better today than it was under President Joe Biden, up five points from January.
A narrow majority of voters, 51%, describe the U.S. economy as strong, a two-point gain from last month and an eight-point increase since November.
More than a third of voters, 36%, say their personal finances are improving, which is four points higher than in November.
The gains were especially pronounced among Republicans, men, likely midterm voters, those aged 25 to 44 and urban voters.
Still, 52% say the economy is shrinking and 62% believe inflation remains above three percent.
“The Americans are single-mindedly focused on the economy, and this poll shows there is room for people to change their opinion as we’re seeing some improvement in the long-term trend,” said Mark Penn, Co-Director of the Harvard CAPS / Harris poll and Stagwell Chairman and CEO.
President Trump’s overall approval rating sits at 46% with his strongest marks on fighting crime in America’s cities at 51%, immigration at 48%, and returning America to its values at 48%.
Policy and trade
On trade, voters sided with the Supreme Court as 65% agreed with the justices’ decision limiting executive power to impose tariffs in non-emergencies.
The poll also shows broad support for election integrity measures.
Eighty-five percent said only U.S. citizens should be allowed to vote and 71% backed the SAVE AMERICA Act.
Ideology and issue support
On ideology, Americans remain overwhelmingly pro-capitalism with 76% supporting free enterprise over socialist policies.
There was strong consensus in favor of private homeownership, property rights and privately run grocery stores.
Trump’s policy agenda drew majority support across multiple fronts, with 80% supporting lowering prescription drug prices.
Seventy-five percent backed deporting illegal immigrants who have committed crimes.
Seventy-one percent favored eliminating fraud in government spending and 69% supported capping credit card interest rates at 10% for one year.
Inflation and immigration remain voters’ top concerns while health care ticked up this month.
On foreign policy, 59% now support the arrest of Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro and U.S. intervention in Venezuela, a five-point increase.
Sixty-two percent said the Trump administration should push Venezuela toward democracy.
State of the Union reaction and midterm implications
Nearly half of voters, 47%, said they watched the State of the Union and among those, 60% viewed it favorably.
All 11 new policies Trump announced received majority support including a ban on stock trading by members of Congress at 72%.
Seventy percent backed federal retirement accounts for workers without plans.
Sixty-nine percent supported a ban on Wall Street firms buying single-family homes and 68% backed a most-favored-nation drug pricing deal.
Fifty-two percent said it was appropriate for some Democrats to boycott the address while 57% said booing and jeering during the speech was inappropriate.
About one-third, 33%, watched the Democratic rebuttal from Virginia Gov. Abigail Spanberger and 61% of those viewers had a favorable opinion.
The midterm picture remains tight with voters split 50-50 on which party they would back if congressional elections were held today.
After exposure to party messaging, 51% said they were more likely to vote Republican and among likely voters the GOP held a four-point edge.
Republican arguments on curbing spending, securing the border and reducing crime resonated most and made more than two in five voters more likely to support the party.
Democratic attacks focused on stopping Trump and his tariffs were seen as believable by 61% of voters but only produced a modest net gain for Democrats.
The Republican Party’s approval rating rose to 48%, up four points since January, compared with 45% for Democrats.
Congressional approval remained low at 34%.
With the midterms looming, the numbers suggest voters are watching their wallets first and adjusting their politics accordingly.
