Fox News Decision Desk Chief Says Election Might Not be Called for 4 Days

Four days after Election Day is the over/under for when Fox News will likely declare a presidential election winner, Arnon Mishkin, the head of the network’s decision desk, said.

Mishkin’s prediction indicates the race will be too close to call for several days after the election, a predicament that mirrors the 2020 election.

“The over/under is Saturday,” Mishkin told Politico. “Which was when the call was made last time.”

Mishkin is technically a consultant for Fox News and not an employee of the network. He has worked with Fox News since 2008 and infamously defended Fox News’s early call in 2020 for Biden in Arizona.

Mishkin explained his prediction:

I think we had a pretty good understanding of how they were going to report [in 2020]. What we don’t know now — but we kind of knew then — was that there was going to be an enormous skew in the vote type. I believe that Joe Biden won every state in the mail-in vote with the exception of Alabama — and that Trump won every state on Election Day with the exception of Vermont and maybe Connecticut. I can’t remember exactly, but there was a huge skew. I think that skew is going to be less this time. I don’t know how much less. I know it’s still going to be there, but the Republicans are doing a much better job of encouraging people to vote however they want.

…

The race seems very, very close. It is dependent on a number of states, like Pennsylvania, that we believe are going to be reporting in a pattern similar to the way they have reported in the past. So I’d say, the over/under is Saturday. Which was when the call was made last time. Which is when Pennsylvania is likely to come in.

I think we have to accept the reality that we don’t really know how close this election is going to be. I’m pretty sure it’s going to be close. I see some polls that say, “Actually, it ain’t going to be close. It’s going to be one way or the other.” There’s some reporting that Trump is sort of gaining. Some of the polls have showed he’s gaining. There’s another sense I have that actually he may be declining. I think the real issue is what happens to Trump. I’ve always thought this about this election: It’s less about who’s running against him than it’s about Trump.

The New York Times also warned its readers in September to expect delayed election results, a warning that appears to preempt an expectation that Americans should know who wins the presidential election on Election night.

The Times, however, reassured readers the 2024 results are not expected to take as long as 2020 because “states have improved their procedures for tabulating mail ballots, and election officials across the country have more experience with the process.”