President Donald Trump is now the favorite to win November’s presidential election, according to the latest data published by 338Canada.
The study, released by the election analysis website on Monday, gave Trump a 51 percent chance of winning, compared with 49 percent for Harris. It was a notable change from the last 338Canada analysis, from October 8, which gave Harris a 52 percent change of victory versus 47 percent for Trump, with a 1 percent chance of a tie.
The key swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin all switched from being more likely to back Harris to Trump between October 8 and 15. Polling also suggests Trump’s position has improved over the past couple of weeks.
A recent Quinnipiac University survey gave Trump a 3 point lead over Harris in Michigan, and a 2 point lead in Wisconsin. A forecast released by The Economist last week, based on “over 10,000 simulations of the election,” had Trump receiving an average of 270 Electoral College votes, just enough for victory. Two weeks earlier, The Economist gave Trump an average of 257 Electoral College votes, which would hand Harris the race.
The latest 338Canada analysis predicted Trump will receive between 203 and 318 Electoral College votes, with a median result of 312. By contrast Harris was forecast to receive 220-335 Electoral College votes, with 226 as the median.
This is a noticeable improvement for Trump on the October 8 338Canada study, which gave Harris a median result of 270 Electoral College votes, against 268 for the Republican nominee.
Between October 8 and 14 the key battleground states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania all switched from toss-ups slightly leaning towards Harris, to toss-ups slightly leaning towards Trump, according to 338Canada. On October 14, the website gave Trump a 53 percent chance of winning Wisconsin, a 51 percent chance of winning Michigan and a 52 percent chance of victory in Pennsylvania.
338Canada used “opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data” to create its election predictions.
As of 5:50 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Trump was the favorite to win in November with prominent bookmakers Betfair and Paddypower, which each gave him odds of 8/11 (57.9 percent) of victory, against 6/5 (45.5 percent) for Harris.
In better news for the Democratic candidate, the most recent analysis of polls by 538 gave Harris a 54 percent chance of winning the presidential election against 46 percent for Trump. This study was last updated on October 14.
Harris received a blow on Wednesday with the publication of a Fox News study showing 27 percent of Black voters, traditionally a key Democratic-leaning voter block, could vote for Trump. This is more than three times the 8 percent of Black voters who backed Trump over Joe Biden in 2020, according to the Pew Research Center.
