Democrats are feeling bullish about their chances in the 2026 midterms, with party insiders expressing growing confidence that they can flip the House, according to a new report from Axios. But behind the optimism lies a stark reality: the party remains deeply unpopular with much of the electorate.
Despite historically poor approval numbers, strategists are counting on backlash to Republican leadership, rather than any broad embrace of Democratic policies, to drive midterm turnout.
Banking on Trump Opposition
According to Axios, the source of Democrats’ newfound confidence isn’t a sudden shift in voter loyalty — it’s their hope that President Donald Trump’s policies will energize their base.
Democrats are especially eyeing:
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Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” — a legislative package aimed at reducing spending and slashing bureaucracy
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Aggressive immigration enforcement, including the deportation of millions of illegal aliens allowed in during the Biden era
Party leaders believe these actions will create enough outrage on the Left to motivate turnout, even as independent voters continue to drift away from the Democratic platform.
Cracks Beneath the Surface
Despite the bold messaging, Democrats remain worried about complacency and overconfidence.
“Some Democrats are worried that victories in 2026 will stop the party from reckoning with its deeper issues and unpopularity,” Axios reported.
Party operatives warn that if Democrats perform well next fall, it could paper over fundamental problems, including alienation from working-class voters, overreach on cultural issues, and growing distrust among independents.
Approval Ratings at Historic Lows
Polls from across the political spectrum confirm what many voters already feel — the Democratic Party is out of touch:
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NBC News (March): Only 27% of voters have a positive view of the Democratic Party — the lowest since 1990
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CNN (July): Democratic favorability sits at just 28%, the lowest since before Bill Clinton
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Wall Street Journal (August): 63% unfavorable rating — a record high for the party
Even worse, CNN found that Democrats are 7 points less likely than Republicans to say their own members of Congress deserve reelection.
Republicans Still Preferred on Key Issues
Despite media hand-wringing over Trump’s positions on the economy, tariffs, and foreign policy, the GOP remains the preferred party on most major issues heading into 2026.
The Wall Street Journal noted that Republicans continue to lead on issues that typically decide elections, including:
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The economy
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Border security
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Crime
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Education
