The number of Republican voter registrations in Florida has been steadily increasing over the years. This upward trend commenced following Ron DeSantis assuming the role of governor. As a result, the quantity of GOP voters in the Sunshine State now surpasses that of Democrats, indicating that Florida is no longer a fiercely contested electoral battleground.
According to the Tallahassee Democrat, a local news outlet, “With another presidential election year taking shape, Florida’s reputation as the nation’s biggest battleground state has faded: Republicans now hold the biggest advantage in voter registration either major party has held in almost four decades.”
According to the local paper, the Republican Party in Florida currently holds a significant advantage of 851,417 voters, marking the largest disparity between the parties since Democrats held a lead of over 854,000 votes in 1988. Given that the rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is already scheduled for November, the Florida presidential primary held on Tuesday was largely inconsequential. Consequently, the state has become a secondary consideration in this year’s presidential contest.
Both parties have acknowledged that their efforts will be primarily focused on more competitive states in terms of advertising, campaign staff, and extensive visits, as highlighted by the local paper.
“From a presidential standpoint, I think we’ll win pretty big here,” Florida Republican Party chair Evan Power told the outlet, looking ahead to the fall. “Obviously, we’re going to continue to work hard on the U.S. Senate race and down-ballot contests. But I think it’s clear we’re a firmly red state now.”
As per the Florida Division of Elections, the state comprises 5.2 million registered Republicans, 4.4 million Democrats, and 3.9 million voters who do not align with any political party.
Nevertheless, Democrats in the state argue that the disparity between the political parties has expanded due to nearly a million voters having their status shifted from active to inactive. This change occurred as a consequence of a recent state law which mandates that individuals who fail to participate in the previous two general elections may potentially forfeit their voting rights.
Still, the Tallahassee Democrat added:
“Tracking company AdImpact already projects that Florida, after leading the nation in media spending in the 2020 presidential contest, will fall to eighth place in this year’s contest. Florida is forecast to fall behind Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin, all states where the White House may be won or lost.”
Biden emerged victorious once again in the Democratic primary held in Florida last week. However, this does not necessarily indicate his strong performance in the state where his most popular Republican opponent, Trump, resides. In the primary, Biden secured all 224 delegates, while Trump, who easily won the GOP primary, obtained the 125 delegates allocated to the Republican winner, as reported by ABC News.
Florida, which was once a highly contested state, has now shifted towards the right under the leadership of Governor Ron DeSantis. Similarly, Ohio has also leaned towards the right in recent election cycles. Trump narrowly won Florida in 2016 and achieved a much wider victory margin in 2020.
Furthermore, a recent survey conducted by St. Pete Polls for WMNF Radio in Tampa suggests that Trump is likely to win the state once again. According to the poll, he currently holds a 6-point lead over the president.
“The survey also shows, however, that among political independents in Florida, the race is virtually tied, with Trump at 41.3% and Biden at 40.9%,” the Florida Phoenix reported, adding that “nearly six percent said they preferred another candidate, and five percent were undecided.”
Furthermore, similar to numerous other recent surveys, the St. Pete Poll reveals a significant lead for Trump over Biden among the younger demographic of voters aged 18-29, with a margin of 51-33 percent. Additionally, Trump surpasses Biden among Florida Hispanics, garnering a 53-36 percent advantage.
The Florida Phoenix added:
“Trump’s lead in Florida isn’t a surprise, as the Republican Party of Florida continues to build up a lead over the Florida Democratic Party in terms of voter registrations in the state. Republicans had a lead over the Democrats of nearly 780,000 at the end of 2023. Trump has defeated his Democratic opponent in Florida in the past two presidential elections. As to voter registration numbers, Republicans are at 5,141,848, Democrats at 4,362,147, and No Party affiliation (NPA) at 3,528,807, according to the Florida Division of Elections.”
