In the Michigan primary on Tuesday night, Joe Biden, the current president, faced a setback as over 100,000 Democrats chose “uncommitted” instead of supporting him. Despite winning the primary with 618,006 votes, which accounted for 81.1 percent of the total vote, this result was considered disappointing for an incumbent. The “uncommitted” votes, totaling 100,995, made up 16 percent of Biden’s overall vote.
This raises concerns for the upcoming presidential election, as Biden cannot afford to lose such a crucial swing state if even 16 percent or ten percent of Democrats decide not to vote. In contrast, only 33,383 Republicans voted “uncommitted,” which accounted for approximately four percent of Donald Trump’s total vote of 756,636. In the 2020 election, Biden supposedly won Michigan by a narrow margin of 154,188 votes out of over five million.
Another worrisome factor for Democrats is that, with 95 percent of the vote counted, former President Trump received a total of 756,636 votes in the Michigan Republican primary, surpassing Biden’s vote count by around 140,000 raw votes. In fact, Trump’s 756,636 votes nearly exceed the total number of votes (so far) in the Democrat primary, which stands at 762,254.
President Trump has received more votes in Michigan tonight than all Democrat primary votes COMBINED. It’s possible that the ENTIRE blue wall gets painted red this November. pic.twitter.com/ab7zSPhPl4
— Lee Zeldin (@LeeMZeldin) February 28, 2024
Tuesday’s results also provide insight into the 2024 general election polling. According to the RealClearPolitics average poll of Michigan polls, Trump is leading Hunter’s Dad by 5.1 points, with a margin of 47.1 to 42 percent. It is worth noting that Trump has consistently been in the lead in the last eight Michigan polls, while Biden has not held the lead in any Michigan poll since October.
To provide further context, it is interesting to observe that throughout the 2020 race, Trump never surpassed Biden in the RealClear Michigan polling. In fact, Trump’s closest margin was around three points. Therefore, the current five-point lead represents a significant eight-point swing in Trump’s favor.
It is important to consider the historical context as well. The last time an incumbent Democrat president appeared on the Michigan primary ballot was in 2012 with Barack Obama. During that primary, only 20,833 individuals voted “uncommitted,” and the overall number of Democratic voters was 194,887. However, there was no sense of urgency among Democrats to participate in that primary, as Obama was widely supported by the party. The situation with Biden is quite different, particularly among the crucial Arab vote in Michigan. As previously reported, there was an organized campaign among Michigan Democrats to embarrass Biden by encouraging the “uncommitted” vote. Conversely, the Biden campaign made efforts to counter this campaign and discourage the “uncommitted” crusade.
