The latest University of Texas/Texas Politics survey finds Rep. Jasmine Crockett leading the Texas Democratic Senate primary by 12 points.
The survey, conducted by the University of Texas/Texas Politics among likely Democratic primary voters, showed Crockett with 56 percent and Talarico with 44 percent and a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percentage points for the Democratic subset.
Poll Context and Rivalry
The result extends Crockett’s advantage relative to some earlier polls even though polling has varied and Talarico still leads the RealClearPolling average.
Crockett has also added a number of key endorsements in the contest.
The March 3 primary will decide the Democratic nominee to face the Republican winner in November for the seat now held by Senator John Cornyn.
Crockett, who has represented a Dallas-area U.S. House district since 2023 after serving in the Texas Legislature, has emphasized demographic shifts in Texas as a basis for possible Democratic gains.
Talarico, an Austin-area state representative since 2018 and a former teacher, has run on progressive priorities while saying she expects to pick up some Republican support.
Money, Ads, and Donors
Fundraising has been a central factor with both campaigns and outside groups raising and spending significant sums.
Talarico has raised more than $20 million overall since entering the race in September 2025, including $7.4 million in the first six weeks of 2026, and finished 2025 with about $7.1 million cash on hand.
Crockett reported raising approximately $6.5 million in the fourth quarter of 2025, including transfers from her House campaign account of roughly $4.5 million, and had $5.6 million cash on hand at year’s end.
Allied groups supporting Talarico have outspent Crockett substantially on television advertising and other outreach, helping drive record-level spending in the primary overall.
Sharp Exchanges and Voter Concerns
The contest has featured pointed intra-party exchanges and negative advertisements that have deepened divisions among Democrats.
Crockett accused a super PAC backing Talarico of running ads that darkened her skin tone and questioned her electability in ways she called racist.
She has also voiced concern about a major donor to Talarico-linked efforts with reported connections to Jeffrey Epstein.
Talarico’s campaign has defended its actions, saying disputed comments were about campaign strategy rather than personal attributes and denying any racial intent.
On the Republican side, Senator John Cornyn is in a tight race with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and U.S. Rep. Wesley Hunt.
For conservative observers, the Democratic infighting, heavy spending, and donor questions raise doubts about the eventual nominee’s strength heading into the general election.
