Following a Republican special election win in a pivotal U.S. House district on Tuesday night, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is urging Republican voters to remain motivated ahead of the upcoming midterm elections.
“Special, off-year, and midterm elections historically benefit the party out of power because its voters are motivated to vote, while voters of the incumbent party become more complacent,” DeSantis wrote.
“This is more glaring for today’s GOP because a chunk of voters who put them in power in 2024 are Trump-specific voters; they will vote GOP down ballot when Trump is running but won’t turn out to vote for a typical congressman in a midterm when Trump isn’t running.”
Special, off-year, and midterm elections historically benefit the party out of power because its voters are motivated to vote, while voters of the incumbent party become more complacent.
This is more glaring for today’s GOP because a chunk of voters who put them in power in 2024… https://t.co/DwFkk9pMzm
— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) December 3, 2025
Republican turnout in special elections, as well as cycles where President Trump is not on the ballot, has indeed lagged in the past. Back in January, Democrats managed to flip an Iowa State Senate seat in a district President Trump carried by more than 20 points the previous November. This was followed up with another flip in the chamber back in September, when Democrats flipped a Trump +10 district.
Additional flips have been recorded in New York and Pennsylvania, while some margins have been less than desired in key U.S. House races.
Turnout in off-year special elections is notoriously low, however. This benefits Democrats in recent years, as the party has made significant gains in suburbs, thus giving the party more high propensity voters that are more likely to vote in such races.
Tuesday’s race in Tennessee was notable in that Republican turnout was better than expected, paving the way for a nine-point win for Republican Matt Van Epps. The margin is notable given Democrat voter enthusiasm heading into the race — which included parts of the party stronghold of Nashville — and a shock poll that had Van Epps winning by just two percentage points last month.
President Donald Trump played a role in mobilizing voter turnout for the race, while national GOP organizations poured funds into the district down the stretch. Notable expenditures included over $1.3 million from billionaire Jeff Yass, more than $600,000 from the Ken Griffin-backed Conservatives for American Excellence, $453,000 from the School Freedom Fund, seven figures from President Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC.
“I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person,” Trump wrote in a truth Social Post last week. “You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”
Elections analyst Red Eagle Politics weighed in on GOP special election performances in 2025 by noting that Democrats have done a good job of engaging urban voters while Republicans have work to do on that front. “Far more turnout than persuasion, although the fact that some of these voters are downballot Dems does make analyzing the Trump to 2026 swing a fool’s errand at times,” he wrote.
“The good news is that they likely don’t need to do so to win most of the competitive House seats (IA-1, PA-7, NJ-7, MI-7). Although, it will hurt them in statewide races if these voters are not engaged, which could cost them NC-Sen, AZ-Gov, etc.”
