Vice President JD Vance has emerged as the clear frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race, according to betting market platform Polymarket, which launched its presidential election board on Friday.
Vance leads the entire field with 27% odds to win the White House—well ahead of California Gov. Gavin Newsom at 17% and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 10%.
Kamala Harris, who was the 2024 Democrat nominee, lags near the bottom at just 4%, trailing even President Donald Trump, who is constitutionally barred from running after serving two terms.
Vance Leads GOP by Wide Margin
On the Republican side, Vance holds a commanding 56%, dwarfing second-place Sen. Marco Rubio, who comes in at just 6%.
The surge reflects Vance’s increased influence inside the GOP. In March, he became the first sitting vice president to also serve as RNC campaign finance chair, making him one of the party’s top fundraisers heading into 2026 and beyond.
Rep. Byron Donalds called Vance “the leader in the clubhouse” and said earlier this year he’d be tough to beat in 2028.
Vance has also become a regular media presence, championing Trump administration picks like Tulsi Gabbard for Director of National Intelligence and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for HHS Secretary—both confirmed by the Senate under his watch.
Newsom Leads Democrat Field
Among Democrats, Newsom leads with 22%, followed by Ocasio-Cortez at 18%, Pete Buttigieg at 12%, Gov. Josh Shapiro at 7%, and Harris at 6%.
Newsom has made recent appearances on right-leaning platforms and received a boost from Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), who said he “feels good” about Newsom’s chances. Clyburn was key in Biden’s 2020 primary turnaround.
Betting Market Reflects Real Momentum
Polymarket has gained a reputation for accurate political forecasting, and its early numbers show Vance is firmly in control of the GOP field—with rising momentum across the board.
