There’s been plenty of polls released in the final weekend before the election. While that includes the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll, which has been criticized for the completely unbelievable results out of Iowa showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead, Atlas Intel also put out a new poll that brings about only good news for former and potentially future President Donald Trump. This turned out to be the most accurate poll for the 2020 cycle.
Last week, Atlas Intel put out a poll showing Trump leading in six out of seven key swing states, with Harris have an edge of +0.2 in Wisconsin. Not only does Trump lead in all seven now, including Wisconsin, his lead has increased in all of them but North Carolina, where he saw a drop in support of 0.3.
This time, Trump leads in all seven swing states, and his lead is outside the margin of error in three of them.
His best performing state is Arizona, where he leads by +6.5 over Harris. Nevada is Trump’s next best state, where he leads by +5.5. This is especially critical, given that the Nevada Supreme Court ruled last Monday that mail-in ballots could come in three days after Election Day and without a postmark. In North Carolina, he’s up by +3.4 over Harris.
Georgia continues to be a bit of a mystery, since it tends to be one of Trump’s best swing state, but he’s up by +2.5, still within the MOE. He also leads Harris in Pennsylvania by +1.8, by +1.5 in Michigan, and by +1.0 in Wisconsin. Those last states are potentially the more trickier ones for a Trump victory, but still feasible. The poll was conducted November 1-2.
With Wisconsin in the Republican column, Trump’s Electoral College win looks to be even more expansive, with 312 votes to Harris’ 226 votes.
Data collection: November 1-2. Sample sizes: AZ: 967; GA: 1174; MI: 1198; NV: 782; NC: 1310; PA: 2049; WI: 728. The margin of error is ±2pp for PA, ±4pp for NV and WI, and ±3pp for the other key states.
Access the full survey at https://t.co/RSH9RwH80T
— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2024
JUST IN: AtlasIntel, the most accurate pollster of 2020, releases their official swing state poll showing Donald Trump leading in every swing state.
The poll shows Trump leading in Arizona and Nevada by a very comfortable margin.
North Carolina: Trump +3.4
Georgia: Trump +2.5… pic.twitter.com/W8EJvnIsKP— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) November 3, 2024
In the previous poll, Trump led Harris in Arizona by +4.2, in North Carolina by +3.7, in Nevada by +3.6, in Georgia by +2.3, in Pennsylvania by +1.5, and in Michigan by +0.6. Harris led in Wisconsin by +0.2.
Just like last week, Atlas Intel also did a poll at the national level, where Trump leads by 49-47.2 percent against Harris in a full field and by 49.8 percent to Harris’ 48.3 percent in a head to head matchup.
HEAD TO HEAD SCENARIO
In the scenario with only Trump and Harris, stability is maintained, with a slight fluctuation favoring the Democrat in voter preference – Trump’s margin goes to 1.5%.
🔴 Trump: 49.8%
🔵 Harris: 48.3% pic.twitter.com/cVof9wOUTJ— AtlasIntel (@atlas_intel) November 3, 2024
Trump led Harris in both the full field last week, by 49.1-47.2 percent, and by 49.6-48.2 percent in a head to head matchup, with those numbers pretty much staying the same.
Trump shared the results of the Atlas Intel poll results from his X account on Saturday.
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 3, 2024
With such results included, RealClearPolling has Trump leading Harris at the national level by +0.2, while he’s leading by +1 in the battleground states. Harris only leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, by +0.3 and +0.6, respectively.
The poll results are also included by 538, which brings Harris’ national lead down to +1 over Trump. Of the seven swing states, Harris also only leads in Wisconsin and Michigan by their metrics.
Nate Silver also included Atlas Intel in his model, which has Harris up by +0.9 at the national level, with the polls trending in Trump’s direction since last week and since last month. Silver had a note about that on Sunday morning, pointing out that “our national polling average tightened even further to Harris +0.9, though the model doesn’t care much about national polls at this stage.” He also stressed his take that the race is “a pure toss-up.”
We’re just a couple of days away to see if this momentum sticks with Trump to become president once more, all while the Harris-Walz campaign continues to be flailing and turning to desperate tactics that look to backfire, as could very well be the case with Harris’ appearance on “Saturday Night Live.”
Morning model update.
NYT swing state polls good for Harris but not great.
Morning Consult swing state polls good for Trump but not great.
It’s a pure toss-up. All the numbers at the link.https://t.co/vsGVG189Sa pic.twitter.com/N5Sc4RiBYN
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) November 3, 2024
