The Senate race in Alaska is showing significant developments as Democrat Mary Peltola has broadened her lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan. With Election Day now behind us, the outcome is still undecided.
Peltola’s margin increased to 4,250 first-choice votes following the latest ballot updates, a jump of approximately 1,700 votes since the previous reporting.
Currently, Peltola commands 118,926 votes, equating to 49%, while Sullivan trails closely with 114,676 votes, or 47.2%.
Adding complexity to the race is Dan J. Sullivan, affectionately termed Decoy Dan by Republicans. The retired teacher from Petersburg is in fourth place with 4,027 first-choice votes, or 1.7%.
This total is nearly equivalent to the shortfall between Peltola and Sullivan, creating uncertainty regarding whose support Decoy Dan’s voters may ultimately back.
Another Republican, Gerald Heikes, stands third with 5,318 votes, representing 2.2% of the total.
Together, votes from Heikes and Decoy Dan surpass 9,300, making their preferences crucial in determining the race’s outcome.
There are still tens of thousands of early and absentee ballots to be counted, leaving both candidates in a position to alter their standings ahead of the ranked-choice voting process.
The ranked-choice count is scheduled to begin on November 18 for any race lacking a candidate who secures over 50% of the first-choice votes. Officials aim to have the certification completed by November 25.
Under the rules of Alaska’s voting system, the candidate with the fewest votes will be eliminated, and their votes will be redistributed to the next preferred candidate still competing.
This redistribution process continues until one candidate emerges as the victor. Ballots lacking an alternative eligible choice will cease to contribute to the candidates remaining in contention.
This means that votes for Decoy Dan or Heikes might not automatically benefit the Republican incumbent; they could favor Peltola, Sullivan, or neither, based on the voters’ rankings.
Both campaigns are leveraging data from the Alaska Division of Elections to bolster their arguments for a potential path to victory, though these figures do not reflect the uncounted ballots.
Peltola had already increased her lead with earlier results, ending that count ahead by 2,517 votes. The recent trend has widened her margin even further, yet with additional ballots pending and a ranked-choice count approaching, the contest remains highly competitive.
