Byron Donalds secured a narrow victory in Florida’s 2026 gubernatorial election on Tuesday evening, based on unofficial results posted after ballots were counted.
With around 90 percent of votes tallied, Donalds and his running mate, Bryan Avila, edged out Democrat candidates David Jolly and Gwen Graham by a mere fraction, with figures reported between 50.1 percent to 49.7 percent, translating to a few tens of thousands of votes in a state that saw over 7.6 million ballots cast.
Comparison to Previous Elections
This outcome diverges sharply from the recent trend of Republican victories in the state. Incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis, who is term-limited, won reelection in 2022 by a commanding 19.4 percentage points. In 2024, President Donald Trump also carried Florida by a solid 13.1 points. Coming into the 2026 race, Republicans boasted a registration advantage of about 1.5 million voters over their Democratic counterparts.
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Decision Desk HQ projects Byron Donalds wins the FL Governor General Election#DecisionMade: 8:28 PM EST
Follow live results here: https://t.co/kBjHEsIg6m pic.twitter.com/BCbRqkHmFr
— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 4, 2026
Donalds, a congressman representing Florida’s 19th District for three terms, won the Republican nomination in August with 47.8 percent of the primary vote against multiple candidates. He received an early endorsement from President Trump and reported a significant fundraising advantage, with campaign contributions estimated between $130–170 million against much lower totals for Jolly.
Recent public polls indicated a slight lead for Donalds, often within single-digit margins: one from the University of North Florida had him at 49 percent to Jolly’s 47 percent, while Stetson University’s survey showed him at 51-45, and various October polls indicated a range of 2 to 6 points. In the weeks leading up to the election, analysts rated the contest as Lean Republican.
Jolly, who previously served as a Republican U.S. representative from Tampa Bay but switched to the Democratic Party in 2018, successfully won his primary with 61 percent this year.
The outcome was also tighter than that of Donalds’ successor in the open 19th Congressional District race, where Republican Jim Schwartzel triumphed over Democrat Victor Arias, backed by both President Trump and Governor DeSantis, by approximately 18 points.
In other state news, Incumbent Senator Ashley Moody narrowly won her special election against Democrat Angie Nixon but did so by a tight margin. The official certification of the gubernatorial election results will proceed through the usual canvass and any necessary recounts mandated by state law.
