Democrats are targeting a historic victory in Texas as state Rep. James Talarico has taken a notable early lead against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in a highly scrutinized Senate race for the 2026 midterms.
As per early voting results, Talarico is ahead of Paxton by nearly 18 percentage points in a state that hasn’t seen a Democrat win a U.S. Senate seat since 1988.
The current tally shows Talarico at 1,833,075 votes, translating to 58.4%, while Paxton trails with 1,257,902 votes, or 40.1%. Independent candidate Ted Brown has garnered 48,107 votes, making up 1.5%.
These figures represent around 30.1% of the anticipated statewide vote, indicating that millions of ballots remain, keeping the final outcome uncertain.
Despite this uncertainty, the early numbers signify a notable shift for Democrats, who have long struggled to break the Republican stronghold in Texas.
Talarico aims to leverage voter dissatisfaction with Paxton and appeal to traditionally conservative voters to switch their allegiances.
Paxton has established himself as a staunch conservative ally of President Trump, focusing on issues like immigration and border security.
However, his political journey has been marred by controversies, including impeachment by the Republican-led Texas House in 2023.
Though acquitted by the Texas Senate, the impeachment episode raised questions about unity within the state’s Republican ranks.
Democrats hope these controversies can help make the Senate race a competitive one, despite Texas’ deep conservative roots.
The stakes are high; a Democratic win in Texas could alter the landscape of control in Congress, especially as Republicans strive to hold the U.S. Senate during Trump’s potential second term.
Texas has historically been a critical state for Republicans, consistently delivering victories for them in presidential and Senate elections for decades.
The last time a Democrat won a Senate election in Texas was back in 1988 when Lloyd Bentsen achieved this feat.
Since then, Republicans have managed to secure their seats, even in cycles when Democrats heavily invested resources into Texas.
Early predictions indicate a dramatic shift toward Talarico, with prediction markets currently giving him a 96% chance of winning compared to just 4% for Paxton.
These market expectations are not official projections and may change as more results come in.
Approximately 7.3 million votes are still outstanding, suggesting that the early Democratic lead could either dissolve or expand significantly based on forthcoming county reports.
The distribution of these outstanding votes will be crucial in determining if Talarico can maintain his lead.
Historically, Republicans have performed well in rural areas of Texas, while Democrats typically gather support from larger urban centers.
At this stage, the election remains undecided, with no official winner declared.
Nonetheless, with Talarico enjoying a significant early advantage, Texas stands out as one of the night’s most surprising races.
