In a recent Fox News appearance on Special Report, Tom Bevan, co-founder of RealClearPolitics, highlighted key factors that might favor the Republican Party as the midterm elections approach.
Bevan analyzed a campaign event where U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) was supporting U.S. Senate nominee Troy Jackson in Maine. He remarked that both parties are focusing on energizing their most committed followers instead of appealing to moderate or less-engaged voters.
“This is a base election. She is addressing Progressive voters in Maine, just as Donald Trump is rallying Maga supporters across various red states,” Bevan explained. He mentioned that several critical Senate races are showing polling margins close to the average error, particularly in states where President Trump has had past successes.
“Six Senate races are currently within two points or less according to our RealClearPolitics average. Trump secured five of those, four by double digits. If Republicans mobilize their voters, they stand to win many of these races,” he added, demonstrating a clear path forward for GOP strategies.
“This is the tactic that Republicans are employing, while Democrats in states like Michigan and Maine focus on galvanizing their base. The middle ground seems to be largely ignored at this point to win over independents,” Bevan noted.
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If Republicans Turn Out, They're Going To Win A Lot Of These Races: @TomBevanRCPhttps://t.co/L9MpPFt1FM
"There are six Senate races right now under 2 points in our RCP average. Trump won five of those states, four by double digits." pic.twitter.com/i2JkclZ3Mg
— RealClearPolitics (@RCPolitics) October 23, 2026
At the time of his remarks, RealClearPolitics averages showed several Senate races close to a 2-point margin. On October 21, these included Iowa, where Republican Ashley Hinson was leading Democrat Josh Turek by a mere 0.1 points; Kansas, with Republican Roger Marshall ahead of Democrat Adam Hamilton by 0.3 points; and Maine, where Democrat Troy Jackson edged out Republican Susan Collins by 1.6 points.
Additionally, Michigan indicated Democrat Abdul El-Sayed ahead of Republican Mike Rogers by 2.0 points, while Texas had Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by 2.2 points. Ohio and Minnesota presented slightly larger Democratic advantages of 2.4 and 3.2 points, respectively.
Bevan emphasized that Trump won five out of six states with the closest polling averages in the 2024 presidential election, four by double digits. He captured Iowa by about 13 points, Kansas by around 16 points, Alaska by roughly 13 points, and Texas by about 14 points. His Ohio victory was about 11 points, with Michigan being a narrow win of approximately 1.4 points.
Among the closest races, Maine stands out, as former Vice President Kamala Harris won there.
