A recent survey from UC Berkeley and the Los Angeles Times indicates a close three-way race among Mayor Karen Bass, City Councilmember Nithya Raman, and reality TV figure Spencer Pratt as they approach the June primary. Each candidate is vying for voter support in this tight contest.
The poll reveals Bass leading at 26%, with Raman at 25% and Pratt at 22%, all within the margin of error. The results signal that the race is too close to call, emphasizing the importance of mobilizing voter turnout.
This shift in polling dynamics contrasts with earlier results that showed Bass with a more comfortable lead. Frustration over urban issues like public safety and homelessness is motivating voters to seek alternatives.
Another significant takeaway from the poll is the shrinking number of undecided voters, now down to 10%, a sharp decrease from 26% in March. Candidates are now faced with the urgent task of rallying the committed voters.
Over time, while Bass’s support remains steady, Raman and Pratt have seen a notable increase in their backing, each gaining approximately eight points since earlier polling, indicating that voters are consolidating around change.
Bass boasts an endorsement from former Vice President Kamala Harris. In contrast, Pratt, running as an independent, focuses on his celebrity status to present himself as a disruptive candidate, while Raman, a progressive, promotes her strengths as a candidate committed to defeating Bass.
Despite the tightening polls, prediction markets still consider Bass the frontrunner, with odds hovering around 71% from Polymarket and 69% on Kalshi, keeping her ahead of both Pratt and Raman.
Bass’s campaign strategist, Doug Herman, maintains confidence as election day approaches. He articulated that the race has always been anticipated to be close, with Bass leading the way.
“This election is about a Mayor who reduced homelessness and increased policing versus a Councilwoman who has voted to minimize LAPD’s presence,” Herman stated, insisting they have the upper hand.
Other recent polling trends support this narrative. An Emerson College survey from early May indicated Bass at 30%, Pratt at 22%, and Raman at 19%, hinting that Pratt’s steady support contrasts with Raman’s late surge.
In Los Angeles’s top-two electoral system, if none of the candidates surpasses 50% in the June 2 primary, the top two will compete in a runoff in November. With current polling showing narrow margins, the second spot remains fiercely contested.
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