A poll from Quantus Insights reveals that Michele Tafoya is in a dominant position in the Republican primary for Minnesota’s U.S. Senate seat. This vacancy has arisen following Senator Tina Smith’s retirement announcement.
Conducted from May 6-8 among 663 likely Republican voters, the survey shows Tafoya with 51.8 percent of initial support.
Among respondents, 27.3 percent are still undecided. Other candidates include former NBA player Royce White at 8.9 percent and Adam Schwarze with 4.1 percent, while Tom Weiler holds 1.6 percent. Additionally, 6.3 percent expressed interest in another hypothetical Republican candidate.
With the Democratic incumbent not seeking re-election, several candidates have declared for the Republican nomination, including Tafoya, White, and Schwarze, along with others like Alycia Gruenhagen, Christopher Brooks, Mark York, and Ray Petersen.
Tafoya, a former NBC sideline reporter, boasts significant name recognition, while White previously ran unsuccessfully against Senator Amy Klobuchar in 2024.
The survey indicates Tafoya’s clear advantage, as she is the only candidate to surpass 50 percent support. The undecided voters could play a crucial role as the campaign unfolds this summer leading to the primary.
NEW QUANTUS INSIGHTS POLL | May 6–8, 2026
Minnesota’s Republican U.S. Senate primary begins with Michele Tafoya holding a commanding early lead, while more than one-quarter of likely Republican primary voters remain undecided.
📊 Minnesota GOP Senate Primary
🔴 Michele Tafoya:… pic.twitter.com/o07jKIYp4y— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) May 21, 2026
Nonetheless, despite her strong position, Tafoya and any potential nominee face considerable challenges as November approaches. Political analysts, including those from the Cook Political Report, classify the race as leaning Democrat due to Minnesota’s voting history and demographic trends.
On the other side, the Democratic primary is set for August 11, 2026, with main candidates U.S. Rep. Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan competing for the nomination.
A Public Policy Polling poll from late April shows Flanagan leading at 44 percent compared to Craig’s 33 percent, with remaining voters undecided or favoring other options. Previous polls have also consistently placed Flanagan ahead by margins of 8 to 13 points.
