Political gamblers are increasingly betting that Attorney General Pam Bondi will be dismissed from her role as the nation’s chief law enforcement officer in the coming months. Odds surged on Thursday following reports of dissatisfaction within President Donald Trump’s inner circle.
The Kalshi market now places a 78% likelihood on Bondi’s exit before May 1, which rises to 82% by June and peaks at 92% before September. This sharp increase follows a period when such expectations were much lower.
This change aligns with reports suggesting that Trump is considering replacing Bondi due to frustration with her performance.
Insider discussions hint that Trump has consulted senior advisers about the potential for Bondi’s dismissal, especially before his recent national address concerning the Iran war. Notable potential successors being mentioned include Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche and EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin.
The discontent seems to focus on two key issues. Firstly, Bondi has faced criticism for not aggressively pursuing Trump’s political adversaries, a priority for the administration’s supporters.
Secondly, her management of the Epstein files has reportedly caused friction within the administration. At times, her public statements have conflicted with those from Trump and other officials.
This combination of factors has led to speculation that a shake-up at the Justice Department might be on the horizon.
While prediction markets are not infallible, they tend to react swiftly when insiders express concerns. The rapid increase in odds suggests that traders believe preparations for Bondi’s departure might already be underway.
For now, Bondi retains her position, but the prevailing trend hints that time may be running out.
