A recent survey by Quantus Insights, noted for its accuracy, reveals Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton in the lead against longtime Senator John Cornyn for the Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff.
The poll, conducted with 1,217 likely voters between March 22-23, shows Paxton at 48.8 percent while Cornyn trails at 41.3 percent. Notably, 9.9 percent of those surveyed remain undecided.
As for voter commitment to participate in the runoff, a substantial 89 percent expressed certainty, with 8.9 percent likely to vote, and just 2.1 percent uncertain. In the initial primary on March 3, 40 percent identified voting for Cornyn, 38.6 percent for Paxton, and 10.6 percent for Rep. Wesley Hunt.
Moreover, 7.7 percent reported not voting at all, while 3.1 percent chose other candidates.
On the question of candidate loyalty, 78.7 percent confirmed strong support, 16.5 percent indicated it could still shift, and 4.7 percent were uncertain. When asked who would be more effective, 51.3 percent chose Paxton and 38.9 percent selected Cornyn, with 9.8 percent unsure.
NEW: Quantus Insights Texas Republican Senate Runoff Poll | March 24, 2026
📊 Senate Runoff
🔴 Ken Paxton: 48.8%
🔴 John Cornyn: 41.3%
⚪️ Undecided: 9.9%
––Nearly 58% of Hunts supporters now backing Paxton.
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📊 Certainty to Vote
🟢 Certain to vote: 88.1%
⚪️… pic.twitter.com/yAwqKo2okk— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) March 24, 2026
Looking at favorability, Paxton enjoys 33.0 percent rating as very favorable and 22.9 percent somewhat favorable. In contrast, Cornyn’s very favorable stands at just 16.5 percent, with a notable 32.6 percent expressing very unfavorable views.
The poll explored the potential influence of a Trump endorsement. For Paxton, 63.5 percent indicated it would not change their opinion; however, 25.8 percent said it would increase their support. In comparison, 70.7 percent felt a Trump endorsement for Cornyn would have no effect, with 18.4 percent saying it would boost their support.
As the campaign progresses, the competition tightens, with no candidate receiving a majority in the March 3 primary. Cornyn garnered about 41.9 percent while Paxton received around 40.7 percent. The runoffs are set for May 26.
Although Trump hinted at an upcoming endorsement following the primary, as of now, no official endorsement has been released.
