President Trump is weighing possible military strikes against Iran as his top uniformed officer warns such an operation could carry significant risks, including the danger of dragging the United States into a lengthy and costly conflict.
Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the president’s principal military adviser, has told Mr. Trump and senior national security officials that even a limited campaign could escalate unpredictably, two people said to Axios.
At issue is not only whether American forces could achieve tactical success, but what would follow once hostilities begin.
White House Deliberations
Senior officials within the Trump administration are locked in discussions about how to approach the Iran standoff, weighing the possible fallout of every option on the table, one source told the outlet.
The president has publicly given Tehran roughly 10 to 15 days to agree to new terms governing its nuclear program, warning that failure to do so could bring “really bad things.”
The United States has bolstered its military posture in the Middle East in recent weeks, deploying aircraft carriers and other assets to signal readiness.
Behind closed doors, some of Mr. Trump’s closest advisers have urged caution and diplomacy.
Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are planning to meet Iran’s foreign minister in Geneva on Thursday and have pressed the president to give negotiations more time.
According to one source briefed on the discussions, Mr. Trump has been leaning toward a strike but agreed to allow negotiations to continue to ensure that all avenues are “exhausted.”
Competing Assessments of Risk and Leverage
The internal divisions reflect competing assessments of risk and leverage among the president’s team.
Some officials argue that time favors Washington by increasing pressure on Tehran, while others worry that delay could sap momentum and produce a deal that falls short of stated red lines.
General Caine’s views carry particular weight given his role as the only military leader briefing Mr. Trump in recent weeks.
That arrangement has sidelined Adm. Brad Cooper, the commander of U.S. Central Command, who has not spoken to the president since the crisis began in early January, according to a senior administration official.
While Caine strongly supported prior operations in Venezuela, two people familiar with his thinking said he has been more cautious in discussions about Iran.
One described him as a “reluctant warrior” on the issue, citing concerns about the scale of potential retaliation and the risk of American casualties.
Another said the chairman is not opposed to military action but is “clear-eyed and realistic” about the uncertainties of success and what could follow once war begins.
A senior official denied that Caine had expressed skepticism.
Vice President Vance has also raised questions about the complexity of a potential operation, though aides say he is not outright opposed to a strike.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been “sitting on the fence,” according to two officials, and has focused much of his recent attention on Venezuela and Cuba.
Outside Pressure and the Final Decision
Outside the administration, some allies are pressing Mr. Trump to act, arguing that delay risks a weak outcome.
Senator Lindsey Graham has urged the president to move forward with military action, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has similarly signaled concern that Washington could ultimately stand down.
Yet even advocates of force concede that no decision has been made.
“The decision to strike, when and how or if at all, has not been made,” a senior administration official said.
For now, the question confronting the president is not only whether to use force, but what kind of conflict might follow if he does.
