A leading election forecaster shifted a handful of key House races to the right after Republican candidate Matt Van Epps soundly defeated his far-left opponent in the closely-watched special election in Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District.
Van Epps emerged victorious over Democrat challenger Aftyn Behn by 8.9 percentage points, largely in line with the district’s lean of R+10 on the Cook Partisan Voter Index (Cook PVI). While President Donald Trump carried the district by 22 percentage points last November, turnout in presidential elections dwarfs that of off-year special elections, while Trump has repeatedly outperformed Republicans when he is not on the ballot.
Democrats had hoped to capitalize on the district’s layout — which contains parts of West Nashville — while also building on solid election showings in Virginia, New Jersey and elsewhere earlier this month. Party enthusiasm peaked last month when a poll from Emerson College found Van Epps leading by just two, prompting a blitz from both major party organizations.
Despite high hopes, the race was called in favor of Van Epps roughly an hour after polls closed. The Republican dominated Election Day voting despite a decent showing for Behn in early voting, while the Democrat failed to receive the turnout she needed in the district’s blue strongholds.
Welcome to the @HouseGOP, Congressman-elect Matt Van Epps! 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/HUw5T3qlxU
— House Republicans (@HouseGOP) December 3, 2025
Sabato’s Crystal Ball, published by the University of Virginia Center for Politics, responded to the result by shifting a number of important House districts rightward.
This includes TN-07 itself, which shifted from “likely Republican” to “safe Republican” following Van Epps’ comfortable victory. Crystal Ball explained that the “likely R” rating was special election specific, adding that the margin of victory when considering Democrat ambitions for the seat reinforces its underlying lean to the right.
In addition, Crystal Ball moved North Carolina’s First Congressional District, currently represented by Democrat Rep. Don Davis, slightly leftward from “likely Republican” to “lean Republican.”
While GOP-led redistricting efforts have made the district more favorable for a flip opportunity, Davis’ strong status as an incumbent has kept the race somewhat competitive despite its Republican lean. Much of the forecast relied on which district Davis would decide to run in as well, as he had a choice to make between the state’s first and third congressional districts.
After Davis confirmed that he would be running in the first district on Monday, Crystal Ball responded by shifting North Carolina’s Third Congressional District, currently represented by Republican Rep. Greg Murphy, from “likely” to “safe” Republican on Wednesday. This was largely due to Davis’ decision, which reduces the likelihood of Murphy facing a competitive race, the center explained.
Crystal Ball House rating changes following TN-7 special (and Davis decision to run in NC-1)
TN-7 🔴 Likely R -> 🔴 Safe R
NC-1 🔴 Likely R -> 🔴 Lean R
NC-3 🔴 Likely R -> 🔴 Safe R— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) December 3, 2025
