A winner in the closely-watched, pivotal special election in Tennessee’s Seventh Congressional District — a race with massive implications on control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the immediate future — has been declared just under an hour after polls closed.
Shortly before 9 p.m. Eastern Time, Cook Political Report senior analyst Dave Wasserman projected that Republican candidate Matt Van Epps had clinched the race. Decision Desk HQ followed up with a race call in favor of Van Epps at 9:06 Eastern Time.
I’ve seen enough: Matt Van Epps (R) defeats Aftyn Behn (D) in the #TN07 special election.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) December 3, 2025
Van Epps emerged victorious over Aftyn Behn, a progressive candidate who managed to emerge victorious in a crowded primary field thanks to backing from senior Democrat leaders like former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Behn faced intense criticism over some of her far-left policy positions throughout the race, including “defund the police” stances, strict gun control and universal access to “gender affirming care” for minors. The Democrat often tried to pivot away from her views during the campaign, as she refused to answer questions on her “defund the police” views in multiple interviews.
Behn’s far-left views likely cost her in the district, which was carried by President Donald Trump by 22 percentage points last November and has a current grade of R+10 on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Democrats were hopeful that they could pull off an upset thanks to promising election results in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as documented trends of Republican underperformance in special elections.
Much of the district’s layout is rural, though it does include sections of West Nashville, a longtime Democratic Party stronghold. Party leaders were hopeful that they could mobilize enough urban voters to pull off an upset, as evidence by DNC expenditures on get out the vote efforts.
This failed to materialize, however, as early projections indicate that turnout lagged below the threshold Behn needed in Davidson County, while turnout for Van Epps appears to have been sufficient in the district’s rural areas. Van Epps’ odds of winning the race had surged to 92 percent, up five percentage points from Tuesday morning, on the odds site Polymarket just an hour before polls closed.
Following less than stellar results in Virginia, New Jersey and elsewhere, national Republicans flooded the district in order to campaign for Vann Epps. Notable expenditures included over $1.3 million from billionaire Jeff Yass, more than $600,000 from the Ken Griffin-backed Conservatives for American Excellence, $453,000 from the School Freedom Fund, seven figures from President Trump’s MAGA Inc. super PAC.
The president also personally urged supporters in the district to get out and vote in a Truth Social post last week.
“I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person,” Trump wrote. “You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”
With Van Epps’ victory, Republicans will now control 220 seats in the House with two, soon to be three, vacancies. Two of these vacancies — New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District and Texas’ 18th Congressional District — are almost certain to be filled by Democrats in the coming weeks.
The third vacancy will be opened early next month, when U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) formally retires from Congress. This will of course provide another Republican vacancy for the foreseeable future, making Van Epps’ race particularly important.
Republicans are likely to fill the vacancy opened by Greene’s departure in Georgia’s 19th Congressional District, which currently holds a partisan lean of R+19.
