Republican Jack Ciattarelli released an internal poll Sunday showing him leading Democrat Mikie Sherrill by one point.
The poll found Ciattarelli at 46% and Sherrill at 45% among likely voters.
Poll Details
The survey was conducted by National Research, a GOP-aligned firm.
It polled 600 likely voters from September 16 to 18.
The poll found Ciattarelli with a 21-point lead among independents.
Jack Ciattarelli
It is the first publicly released poll to show him ahead.
Earlier National Research polling had Sherrill narrowly leading.
A survey on Sept. 10 showed Sherrill at 47% and Ciattarelli at 45%.
A June poll showed the race within the margin of error.
Context
Public polls have consistently shown Sherrill in the lead.
A Quinnipiac survey last week gave Sherrill an eight-point advantage.
Quantus Insights polling earlier showed her ahead by 10 points.
The RealClearPolitics polling average still has Sherrill +8.8.
Mikie Sherrill
The Ciattarelli campaign argues momentum is shifting.
Republicans see opportunity after Trump’s gains in 2024.
The poll also found Gov. Phil Murphy’s approval underwater.
Just 35% approved of Murphy’s job performance, with 53% disapproving.
Political Landscape
Democrats once dominated New Jersey voter registration.
In 2020, Democrats held 38% of registered voters, Republicans 22%.
By 2024, Republicans had gained ground, climbing to 24%.
The GOP cut into both Democratic and independent shares.
Trump’s 2024 showing boosted Republican hopes statewide.
Kamala Harris won New Jersey by just six points over Trump.
That marked a dramatic rightward shift compared to 2020.
Republicans believe the state is more competitive than ever.
History of Polling Misses
The 2021 governor’s race showed major polling errors.
Polls gave Murphy a double-digit lead over Ciattarelli.
Phil Murphy
He ultimately won by only three points on Election Day.
Republicans say the miss proves the state can surprise.
They argue polling averages underestimate GOP strength.
The Ciattarelli campaign says history could repeat in 2025.
Polling volatility has both parties watching closely.
What’s Next
Mail-in ballots began going out on Saturday.
Voting effectively begins this week for many New Jerseyans.
The first gubernatorial debate is scheduled for Sunday night.
It will be hosted by the New Jersey Globe and Rider University.
The race is expected to tighten further as ballots are cast.
Both campaigns are preparing for a contentious final stretch.
The outcome could signal broader national trends.
